February 22, 2024

January 2024 Home Sales Predictor

Industry Insights | Home Sales Predictor | November 2023Industry Insights | Home Sales Predictor | November 2023

Top things to know this month

  • 5 million agent-assisted homes were sold in 2023 
  • The Home Sales Predictor model predicts 285K closed listings in Jan and 291K in February  
  • These predictions bode well for a stronger Spring market 

Happy New Year! There’s something about the clean slate of the flip of the calendar year. And while 2023 was not the year many expected, there were so many lessons learned to help prepare us for whatever 2024 throws our way.  

In spite of all the ups and downs — low inventory, high interest rates, constrained margins, the list goes on — 5 million agent-assisted homes were sold in 2023. 5 million+ transactions. 5 million+ commissions. 5 million homes in which the transaction flowed through an agent.  

The real estate industry did not come to a screeching halt. And we’re pretty dang certain that will not be happening this year either. So ready or not, it’s time to hit the ground running. If 2024 is even marginally more productive than 2023 then that means there are more than 5 million home sales that will be represented by an agent this year. Are you prepared for it to be you? 

Let’s get to the numbers.  

Looking back at December, there were 358K home sales (7% lower than we predicted). This is a 4% decrease from November and a 7% decrease YoY. And while this was fewer home sales than we predicted, it’s not all that surprising. When you look at the comparison of interest rates between this December and two years past, the higher rates did not leave much motivation for a move.  

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States
[Graph adapted from Federal Reserve Economic Data]

We’re kicking off the year sitting between 2016 and 2017 numbers.  

January 2024 Year over Year | MoxiWorks Home Sales PredictorJanuary 2024 Year over Year | MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor

Looking ahead the Home Sales Predictor is showing there will be 285K agent-assisted home sales in January. This is a 20% decrease from December, which is typical based on seasonality. 

January 2024 vs February 2024 | MoxiWorks Home Sales PredictorJanuary 2024 vs February 2024 | MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor

For February, the model is predicting we will see a 2% increase over January with 291K closed listings. 

We’ve been hearing rumblings from our customers, and we also believe that we are headed for a stronger Spring market. Interest rates are widely expected to stabilize and pent-up demand, or just plain antsy people, is likely to create a spur of activity.

It’s getting better out there. Keep grinding.  

Until next month.  

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Catch up on
 the most recent Home Sales Predictor reports: 

December 2023 Home Sales Predictor 
November 2023 Home Sales Predictor 
October 2023 Home Sales Predictor  

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